What to expect from Deshaun Watson in the Texans’ redesigned offense (2024)

Here’s one way to understand just how good Deshaun Watson has been during the first few years of his pro football career: The Texans quarterback is just the second passer ever to average at least 7.0 yards per attempt and record a touchdown rate of 5% or better in each of his first three NFL seasons. The other is Hall of Famer Dan Marino.

With that sort of evidence, people around the league now consider Watson one of the best players at the most important position in sports. The Athletic’s Mike Sando recently released his 2020 quarterback tiers, a survey of 50 coaches and evaluators, and Watson was one of just five Tier 1 QBs. His average tier vote improved from 2.27 last year to 1.44 this year, the survey’s second-largest improvement.

“Watson gets everyone to believe in the face of certain peril,” an exec told Sando. “He makes the plays he needs to. This year will be a good test for him with a new cast.”

It will indeed. For all the brilliance Watson’s statistics display, he put up those numbers while playing alongside All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who received 31.8% of the Texans’ targets in the past three seasons. No wideout was used more frequently during that span, but now Hopkins is gone.

So what should we expect to see from Watson in Year Four? A deep look at last season’s stats provides some answers.

Where Watson will miss Hopkins

Hopkins averaged a career-low 11.2 yards per reception last season, but his average depth of target (10.1 yards) was also the lowest of his career, as he saw an uptick in snaps from the slot. Aside from Will Fuller, Hopkins’ 62 targets from the slot alone are more than every other Texans player saw in total.

The increased usage of Hopkins in this manner helped Watson record the fastest average time to throw of his career (2.82 seconds). It also explains why — as Watson turned to his best receiver in the quick passing game, amid middle-of-the-field traffic — the percentage of his throws into tight windows went up slightly, from 14.5% in 2018 to 15.8% this past season.

There won’t be a go-to target like Hopkins in the new Texans offense, but it will still be important to have a reliable slot target who provides Watson with easy, efficient completions that protect him. Last season, according to Pro Football Focus, Watson completed 75.2 % of passes he threw in 2.5 seconds or less. That ranked fifth.

Free agent acquisition Randall Cobb will be Houston’s primary slot receiver, but tight end Jordan Akins will play a role here, too. So will Kenny Stills and potentially Keke Coutee, if he makes the 53-man roster. It’ll be hard for any of these men to earn the level of trust Watson had in Hopkins.

Under pressure

As mentioned above, Watson was highly efficient when he got rid of the ball in 2.5 seconds or less last season, and he did so on 48.6% of his dropbacks, the league’s ninth-highest rate. Yet according to PFF, he still averaged the second-longest time in pocket (2.97), second-longest time to sack (4.09) and second-longest time to scramble (5.52).

In other words, when Watson extended plays, he really extended them.

Whenever Watson is asked about all of the hits he takes and how long he holds onto the ball, he says this is simply part of his game — and there’s truth to that. How many others QBs would spin away from a collision with two Bills defenders and get a pass off to seal a playoff win?

The play isn't over until Deshaun says it is 🤯 @deshaunwatson @HoustonTexans pic.twitter.com/SeZN32B6yQ

— The Checkdown (@thecheckdown) July 26, 2020

Still, with the Texans possessing underwhelming defensive talent and Hopkins no longer around to prop up a backup quarterback, it’s more important than ever that Watson avoid hits — and whether that happens is mostly on him. Pressure is largely a quarterback stat.

Need evidence? After adding Laremy Tunsil, Tytus Howard and Max Scharping to the line, the Texans finished eighth in ESPN’s pass block win rate, which measures how frequently a lineman held a block for 2.5 seconds or more. But that improved pass protection only resulted in the Texans moving from 32nd to 27th in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate.

Watson is not going to become Drew Brees, and he shouldn’t. But he could try to emulate another brilliant improviser in Russell Wilson, who also takes a lot of hits but is a bit quicker to bail from the pocket and run than Watson. In each of the past three years, the Seahawks have never finished better than 24th in adjusted sack rate, but they’ve always finished ahead of the Texans.

Deep passing

Watson’s improvising is so important to his game because it buys receivers time to separate downfield, allowing him to show off one of his other impressive traits: deep ball accuracy.

Last season, on throws at least 20 yards past the line of scrimmage, Watson ranked first in PFF’s adjusted completion percentage (54.1) while deep balls accounted for 14.9% of his throws. That was the league’s fifth-highest rate of such throws, and with the addition of Brandin Cooks, the Texans might look to push it even higher.

Though Hopkins was effective downfield, this is one area where the Texans might not miss him much. Since 2015, Cooks has recorded 82 explosive receptions (20-plus yards), which is sixth-most among receivers and just 10 fewer than Hopkins. Kenny Stills and Will Fuller are also both back, and Watson was plenty effective last year when targeting those field-stretchers. According to Sharp Football Analysis, last season Watson averaged 9.2 yards per attempts on throws to non-Hopkins wideouts.

Stills, in particular, had one of the most efficient seasons of his seven-year career, averaging over 14 yards per reception and posting a catch rate over 70% for just the second time ever. PFF considered nine of Stills’ deep ball targets to be catchable, and he caught all of them, including four touchdowns. The scoring might regress, but there’s reason to believe he’ll continue to be close to this reliable downfield. According to PFF, Stills has dropped just two of his 35 catchable deep targets since 2016.

Fuller, meanwhile, dropped six deep balls, good for a career-high drop rate of 40%. This looks like a potential outlier, and Watson could benefit from Fuller bouncing back in this area.

Situational football

During his first two professional seasons, Watson was 0-8 when trailing at halftime. But last year, the Texans went 4-5 when down after two quarters.

What made Watson so much better in these scenarios? His 2018 stats when trailing by 10 or less in second halves were actually pretty good, but last year, in the same situations, he pushed the ball almost two yards further downfield on average while completing passes at roughly the same rate.

Unsurprisingly, Hopkins was key to Watson’s success in these situations. When trailing by 10 or less in the second half last season, Hopkins’ already high target share rose to 32.6%.

Even though the Texans want to diversify their targets, it’s natural for a quarterback to turn to the receiver he trusts most when the stakes are highest. Who will that be this year? Cooks? Fuller? Stills? Cobb?

Hopkins also received a team-high 13 red zone targets, but tight end Darren Fells actually led the Texans with 10 red zone receptions, including a career-high seven touchdowns. Fells’ unexpected contributions helped the Texans go from 25th in points per red zone appearance in 2018 to fifth the next year. But at 34, Fells enters the season as a regression candidate, which combined with the loss of Hopkins could severely impact the Texans’ red zone efficiency.

On the other hand, there’s another Texans tight end for whom regression to the mean could result in better red zone numbers in 2020. Houston utilized 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs) on 37% of its red zone plays last year, yet Akins recorded just one reception, which resulted in a touchdown.

(Note: Net yards/attempt factors in sacks)

When he runs

Based on expected points added, only the Ravens were more efficient on QB runs than the Texans. But Houston didn’t ask Watson to run nearly as often as Lamar Jackson. Of Watson’s 82 rushing attempts in 2019, just 38 were designed runs, according to Sportradar.

Considering how many resources the Texans have recently spent on their offensive line, protecting Watson is clearly a priority, so it’s understandable that the team has been cautious when it comes to utilizing his legs. But might that change under first time play-caller Tim Kelly? It could ultimately depend on how effective new running back David Johnson is.

Next Gen Stats recently released a new rushing metric called expected yards per carry, and based on that, Johnson was unsuccessful in one of the league’s more run friendly schemes. He’ll now run behind a Texans line that returns all five starters from last year, when Houston ranked next to last in expected yards per carry and benefited from running back Carlos Hyde outperforming his circ*mstances.

If Johnson flops, an increase in designed quarterback runs could help the Texans maintain a respectable rushing offense.

Closing thoughts

By the standards of Sando’s survey, “a Tier 1 quarterback can carry his team each week. The team wins because of him. He expertly handles pure passing situations. He has no real holes in his game.”

If the 28 people who rated Watson a Tier 1 QB are correct in their evaluations, then losing Hopkins ultimately won’t matter too much. Watson, who has famously lost very few games by more than one score, should give his team an incredibly high floor.

After all, Watson has won with bad offensive lines and poor defenses. But he has also never played in a game without Hopkins. This statistical breakdown shows how hard it is to separate the quarterback’s production from the All-Pro receiver.

If Watson’s play unexpectedly takes a significant step back this season, then the Texans might find themselves in an uncomfortable position. Their willingness to mortgage their future by trading draft picks for proven players becomes harder to stomach if they end up having a starting quarterback who is really good, but not quite good enough to elevate the receivers around him.

(Photo by Will Vragovic/Getty Images)